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Research on Early Warning of Food Security Using a System Dynamics Model: Evidence from Jiangsu Province in China
Author(s) -
Xu Jianling,
Ding Yi
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of food science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.772
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1750-3841
pISSN - 0022-1147
DOI - 10.1111/1750-3841.12649
Subject(s) - food security , warning system , china , government (linguistics) , productivity , principal (computer security) , business , natural resource economics , environmental economics , economics , agricultural economics , computer science , computer security , economic growth , geography , agriculture , linguistics , philosophy , archaeology , telecommunications
Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self‐sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self‐sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity.