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Prediction of global geographic distribution of Metcalfa pruinosa using CLIMEX
Author(s) -
Byeon Daehyeon,
Jung JaeMin,
Jung Sunghoon,
Lee WangHee
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
entomological research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.421
H-Index - 20
eISSN - 1748-5967
pISSN - 1738-2297
DOI - 10.1111/1748-5967.12253
Subject(s) - habitat , distribution (mathematics) , pest analysis , agriculture , climate change , ecology , biology , agricultural pest , invasive species , agroforestry , environmental resource management , environmental science , mathematical analysis , botany , mathematics , agricultural science
Globalization has changed the habitats of various species, resulting in harmful pest invasion. Among these pests, Metcalfa pruinosa has caused worldwide economic and hygienic damage in both urban and agricultural/forested areas. It has been reported that prediction of pest distribution is key to the management of pest prevention. Hence, this study aimed to predict the potential geographic distribution of M . pruinosa under the current climate and under a climate change scenario. CLIMEX, modeling software that analyzes the habitat suitability of a target species based on comprehensive climatic and physiological data, was used mainly to establish a map of predictive distribution of M . pruinosa at present and in the future. Based on our simulations, we predict that M . pruinosa will tend to extend its distribution northward in North America and Europe. We conclude that climate change could result in M . pruinosa invasion in a northward direction, suggesting the need for a thorough system of control and prevention.