Premium
Brexit: Wie wird es der Landwirtschaft des Vereinigten Königreichs ergehen?
Author(s) -
Hubbard Carmen,
Davis John,
Feng Siyi,
Harvey David,
Liddon Anne,
Moxey Andrew,
Ojo Mercy,
Patton Myles,
Philippidis George,
Scott Charles,
Shrestha Shailesh,
Wallace Michael
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
eurochoices
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.487
H-Index - 15
eISSN - 1746-692X
pISSN - 1478-0917
DOI - 10.1111/1746-692x.12199
Subject(s) - computable general equilibrium , brexit , economics , agriculture , tariff , production (economics) , partial equilibrium , international economics , common agricultural policy , agricultural economics , net farm income , direct payments , payment , international trade , european union , general equilibrium theory , farm income , macroeconomics , geography , archaeology , finance
Summary There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU , agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU 's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.