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Predicting the number of emergency department presentations in W estern A ustralia: A population‐based time series analysis
Author(s) -
Mai Qun,
AboagyeSarfo Patrick,
Sanfilippo Frank M,
Preen David B,
Fatovich Daniel M
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
emergency medicine australasia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.602
H-Index - 52
eISSN - 1742-6723
pISSN - 1742-6731
DOI - 10.1111/1742-6723.12344
Subject(s) - metropolitan area , medicine , triage , autoregressive integrated moving average , emergency department , population , demography , multivariate analysis , univariate , multivariate statistics , emergency medicine , gerontology , time series , statistics , environmental health , nursing , mathematics , pathology , sociology
Objective To predict the number of ED presentations in W estern A ustralia ( WA ) in the next 5 years, stratified by place of treatment, age, triage and disposition. Methods We conducted a population‐based time series analysis of 7 year monthly WA statewide ED presentation data from the financial years 2006/07 to 2012/13 using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average ( ARIMA ) and multivariate vector‐ ARIMA techniques. Results ED presentations in WA were predicted to increase from 990 342 in 2012/13 to 1 250 991 (95% CI : 982 265–1 519 718) in 2017/18, an increase of 260 649 (or 26.3%). The majority of this increase would occur in metropolitan WA (84.2%). The compound annual growth rate ( CAGR ) in metropolitan WA in the next 5 years was predicted to be 6.5% compared with 2.0% in the non‐metropolitan area. The greatest growth in metropolitan WA would be in ages 65 and over ( CAGR , 6.9%), triage categories 2 and 3 (8.3% and 7.7%, respectively) and admitted (9.8%) cohorts. The only predicted decrease was triage category 5 (−5.3%). Conclusions ED demand in WA will exceed population growth. The highest growth will be in patients with complex care needs. An integrated system‐wide strategy is urgently required to ensure access, quality and sustainability of the health system.