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Accuracy of Identifying Juvenile/Adult Status from Third Molar Development using Prediction Probabilities Derived from Logistic Regression Analysis
Author(s) -
Acharya Ashith B.,
Bhowmik Biyas,
Naikmasur Venkatesh G.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of forensic sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.715
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1556-4029
pISSN - 0022-1198
DOI - 10.1111/1556-4029.12366
Subject(s) - juvenile , molar , logistic regression , juvenile delinquency , young adult , adult male , demography , grading (engineering) , regression analysis , medicine , mathematics , dentistry , statistics , biology , psychology , developmental psychology , ecology , sociology
The use of third molars in predicting juvenile/adult status (≥ 18 years) has important legal ramifications. Third molar development was assessed using K öhler's grading on 268 orthopantomograms of Indian subjects. Logistic regression analysis was applied to determine allocation accuracy of juvenile/adult status and the level of probability that is “reliable” in predicting juvenile/adult status. Allocation accuracies ranged between 75.8% and 78.2% for the sexes combined, with minimal male‐female differences. Adults were categorized more accurately than juveniles, suggesting that K öhler's grading puts Indian juveniles at greater risk of unwarranted punishment. In both sexes, juvenile/adult status was “reliably” predicted when the probability was >80% using individual third molars (excepting the lower right third molar in males); combining upper and lower third molars on the left/right sides, “reliable” predictions were possible when the probability was >80% and >90% for females and males, respectively. Overall, “reliable” juvenile/adult status prediction was achieved in c . 36% of subjects.