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Comparative Analysis of Insect Succession Data from Victoria ( A ustralia) Using Summary Statistics versus Preceding Mean Ambient Temperature Models
Author(s) -
Archer Mel
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of forensic sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.715
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1556-4029
pISSN - 0022-1198
DOI - 10.1111/1556-4029.12345
Subject(s) - ecological succession , forensic entomology , statistics , geography , biology , ecology , mathematics , larva
Minimum postmortem interval (m PMI ) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon p re‐ a ppearance i nterval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI ). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers ( n = 2 experimental, n = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival ( r 2 = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models ( r 2 = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure ( r 2 = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models ( r 2 = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating m PMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate m PMI estimates.