Comparative Analysis of Insect Succession Data from Victoria ( A ustralia) Using Summary Statistics versus Preceding Mean Ambient Temperature Models

Minimum postmortem interval (m PMI ) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon p re‐ a ppearance i nterval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI ). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers ( n  = 2 experimental, n  = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival ( r 2  = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models ( r 2  = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure ( r 2  = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models ( r 2  = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating m PMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate m PMI estimates.