Measures and Models of Budgetary Policy

This manuscript considers the theoretical and empirical differences between appropriations and outlays and the implications of these differences for analyses of public budgeting in the United States. The research focuses on two questions: (1) What is the relationship between appropriations and outlays over time in different budgetary functions? and (2) What is the consequence of using appropriations or outlays in analyses of budgetary change? Results indicate that the relationship between appropriations and outlays varies quite considerably (and surprisingly) across functions and that the differences matter quite a lot, at least in certain areas. Indeed, whether one uses appropriations or outlays may lead one to draw very different conclusions about the politics of public budgeting. Budgetary measures, it appears, really matter.