A Mass–Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking

Objective . The purpose of this article was to test the generality of wishful thinking by comparing mass and elite beliefs concerning the future of nuclear power in Sweden. Methods . Data from 11 (1986–1996) surveys of the public and a 1988 survey of the Swedish Parliament that included questions concerning preference and expectation regarding nuclear power were examined. Results . A tendency toward wishful thinking occurred consistently across years among the masses, but was considerably stronger among the political elite (members of parliament). The anti–nuclear segment of the public showed a weakened tendency to expect a preferred outcome. Conclusion . Ambiguity of the future outcome, involvement, and knowledge are discussed as key factors in determining the level of wishful thinking in a given context.