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Evaluating the Costs of Increased Lending in Low and Negative Growth Local Housing Markets
Author(s) -
Gong Fangxiong,
Gyourko Joseph
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
real estate economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.064
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1540-6229
pISSN - 1080-8620
DOI - 10.1111/1540-6229.00744
Subject(s) - economics , market liquidity , asset (computer security) , value (mathematics) , default risk , monetary economics , financial economics , actuarial science , credit risk , computer security , machine learning , computer science
The literatures on default and the evaluation of low downpayment mortgage programs are extended by showing within an options pricing framework how differences in expected price appreciation trends across housing markets can influence default and, thereby, the cost of programs designed to increase mortgage liquidity. An equilibrium mortgage rate reflecting the risk premium required to compensate for expected default‐related losses is endogenously determined within the model. Evaluating the entire process by which program losses arise strictly within a rigorous asset pricing framework has potentially important implications for policy evaluation, as the estimated present value of program losses in declining markets where expected default is high is quite sensitive to the choice of the discount rate. The implications of increased lending in low and negative price appreciation local markets are also investigated.