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Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects
Author(s) -
Dolde Walter,
Tirtiroglu Dogan
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
real estate economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.064
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1540-6229
pISSN - 1080-8620
DOI - 10.1111/1540-6229.00029
Subject(s) - volatility (finance) , economics , volatility risk premium , volatility smile , volatility swap , econometrics , monetary economics , financial economics , forward volatility , implied volatility
We examine significant volatility shifts in regional housing price changes, adapting a method of Haugen, Talmor and Torous (1991) independent of predefined sampling blocks. We identify 36 volatility events, most of which are purely regional, but three of which are national. We find significant associations of volatility events and economic conditions, especially national and regional income growth, inflation, and interest rates. During an initial adjustment period after a volatility shift, realized housing returns move opposite to volatility. We find evidence of significant interregional diffusion of volatility increases, but not of decreases. New insights on links between economic conditions and housing volatility and returns should be of value to household investors and mortgage investors.