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Forecasting the Market Penetration of New Technologies Using a Combination of Economic Cost and Diffusion Models
Author(s) -
Teotia A. P. S.,
Raju P. S.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
journal of product innovation management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.646
H-Index - 144
eISSN - 1540-5885
pISSN - 0737-6782
DOI - 10.1111/1540-5885.340225
Subject(s) - commercialization , market penetration , computer science , penetration (warfare) , technology forecasting , industrial organization , economics , risk analysis (engineering) , operations research , business , artificial intelligence , marketing , engineering
Forecasting market penetration is an essential step in the development, assessment, and commercialization of new technologies. Among the many forecasting approaches available are the economic cost model and the diffusion model. Separately, each of these approaches has been used in many applications of market penetration forecasting. In this article, A. P. S. Teotia and P. S. Raju briefly review these two approaches and then describe a methodology for forecasting market penetration using both of these approaches sequentially. They illustrate this approach with an example of market penetration forecasting for energy‐efficient electric motors. A combination approach, which incorporates the strengths of two or more approaches, may be superior in many instances to the use of any one approach alone.