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Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan
Author(s) -
Ramsey A. Ford,
Ghosh Sujit K.,
Sonoda Tadashi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/1477-9552.12290
Subject(s) - bayesian probability , multilevel model , context (archaeology) , agriculture , econometrics , poisson distribution , poisson regression , economics , econometric model , hierarchical database model , agricultural economics , statistics , geography , computer science , mathematics , sociology , demography , population , archaeology , data mining
Off‐farm employment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farm exit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. Examining this issue in the context of Japanese agriculture, we find that farm exits are related to off‐farm income as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off‐farm work. Two econometric models are developed: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform well in predicting exit rates across the towns and prefectures of Japan.