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Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model
Author(s) -
Ermolieva Tatiana,
Havlík Petr,
Ermoliev Yuri,
Mosnier Aline,
Obersteiner Michael,
Leclère David,
Khabarov Nikolay,
Valin Hugo,
Reuter Wolf
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/1477-9552.12173
Subject(s) - interdependence , food security , systemic risk , stochastic modelling , stochastic programming , option value , risk management , computer science , biosphere , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental economics , operations research , economics , business , agriculture , microeconomics , mathematical optimization , mathematics , ecology , finance , financial crisis , macroeconomics , incentive , political science , law , biology
Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security ( FEWES ) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model ( GLOBIOM ), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario‐dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better‐off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex‐ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex‐post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value‐at‐Risk ( CV aR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.