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Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri‐food Import Ban
Author(s) -
Boulanger Pierre,
Dudu Hasan,
Ferrari Emanuele,
Philippidis George
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.157
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1477-9552
pISSN - 0021-857X
DOI - 10.1111/1477-9552.12156
Subject(s) - computable general equilibrium , sanctions , economics , european union , international trade , international economics , robustness (evolution) , commercial policy , macroeconomics , political science , biochemistry , chemistry , gene , law
In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri‐food products from countries enforcing Ukraine‐related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short‐run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex‐post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.