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Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk
Author(s) -
DECHOW PATRICIA M.,
ERHARD RYAN D.,
SLOAN RICHARD G.,
SOLIMAN AND MARK T.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of accounting research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.767
H-Index - 141
eISSN - 1475-679X
pISSN - 0021-8456
DOI - 10.1111/1475-679x.12348
Subject(s) - equity (law) , duration (music) , economics , econometrics , financial economics , monetary economics , art , literature , political science , law
ABSTRACT Implied equity duration was originally developed to analyze the sensitivity of equity prices to discount rate changes. We demonstrate that implied equity duration is also useful for analyzing the sensitivity of equity prices to pandemic shutdowns. Pandemic shutdowns primarily impact short‐term cash flows, thus they have a greater impact on low‐duration equities. We show that implied equity duration has a strong positive relation to U.S. equity returns and analyst forecast revisions during the onset of the 2020 COVID‐19 shutdown. Our analysis also demonstrates that the underperformance of “value” stocks during this period is a rational response to their lower durations.