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Reordering the French election calendar: Forecasting the consequences for 2002
Author(s) -
JÉRÔME BRUNO,
JÉRÔMESPEZIARI ÉRONIQUE,
S. LEWISBECK MICHAEL
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
european journal of political research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.267
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1475-6765
pISSN - 0304-4130
DOI - 10.1111/1475-6765.00091
Subject(s) - contest , legislature , opposition (politics) , presidential election , inversion (geology) , counterfactual thinking , economics , presidential system , general election , political science , politics , political economy , public administration , law , psychology , paleontology , social psychology , structural basin , biology
. French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French election forecasting, we show that the inversion brought great vote gains to the Socialist‐led coalition in both the legislative and presidential arenas. One advantage of this forecasting methodology is that it allows counterfactual comparisons in advance of the actual election contest. Comparing the scenarios ‘inversion’ versus ‘no inversion’, the Socialist leadership appeared highly strategic and successful.