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Market Fundamentals and Iron Ore Spot Prices*
Author(s) -
Ma Yiqun,
Zhen Wei
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
economic record
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.365
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1475-4932
pISSN - 0013-0249
DOI - 10.1111/1475-4932.12564
Subject(s) - iron ore , spot contract , spot market , volatility (finance) , economics , stock (firearms) , monetary economics , metallurgy , econometrics , financial economics , engineering , materials science , electricity , electrical engineering , futures contract
The presence of iron ore spot prices has raised the question whether iron ore spot prices are driven by market fundamentals. We analyse iron ore spot prices over the period 2014–18 while considering a structural break. The results show that China’s steel production only affects the volatility of iron ore spot prices. Over the two subsample periods, the mean and volatility of iron ore spot prices are vulnerable to changes in port stock. Overall, in determining iron ore spot prices, the effect of supply fundamentals outweighs that of demand fundamentals.