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Predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirth of the competing risks model for small‐for‐gestational‐age fetuses
Author(s) -
Nicolaides Kypros H.,
Papastefanou Ioannis,
Syngelaki Argyro,
Ashoor Ghalia,
Akolekar Ranjit
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
bjog: an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.157
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1471-0528
pISSN - 1470-0328
DOI - 10.1111/1471-0528.17066
Subject(s) - obstetrics , medicine , gestation , guideline , fetus , small for gestational age , gestational age , prospective cohort study , observational study , pregnancy , gynecology , biology , pathology , genetics
Objectives To examine the predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths of the competing risks model for small‐for‐gestational‐age (SGA) fetuses based on a combination of maternal risk factors, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA‐PI); and second, to compare the performance of this model with that of a stillbirth‐specific model using the same biomarkers and with the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (RCOG) guideline for the investigation and management of the SGA fetus. Design Prospective observational study. Setting Two UK maternity hospitals. Population A total of 131 514 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19–24 weeks of gestation. Methods The predictive performance for stillbirth achieved by three models was compared. Main Outcome Measure Placental dysfunction related stillbirth. Results At 10% false‐positive rate, the competing risks model predicted 59%, 66% and 71% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths, at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective figures of 62%, 70% and 73% for the stillbirth‐specific model. At a screen positive rate of 21.8%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 71%, 76% and 79% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, and the respective figures for the RCOG guideline were 40%, 44% and 42%. Conclusion The predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths by the competing risks model for SGA was similar to that of the stillbirth‐specific model and superior to that of the RCOG guideline. Tweetable Abstract The competing risks approach for SGA is superior to the RCOG guideline in the prediction of placental dysfunction related stillbirths.