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Key steps and common pitfalls in developing and validating risk models
Author(s) -
Wynants L,
Collins GS,
Van Calster B
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
bjog: an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.157
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1471-0528
pISSN - 1470-0328
DOI - 10.1111/1471-0528.14170
Subject(s) - key (lock) , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , set (abstract data type) , management science , data science , process management , engineering , medicine , computer security , programming language
Models for estimating an individual's risk of having or developing a disease are abundant in the medical literature, yet many do not meet the methodological standards that have been set to maximise generalisability and utility. This paper presents an overview of ten steps from the conception of the study to the implementation of the risk model and discusses common pitfalls. We discuss crucial aspects of study design, data collection, model development and performance evaluation, and discuss how to bring the model to clinical practice. Tweetable abstract We present an overview of ten key steps for the development of risk models and discuss common pitfalls.