Premium
Modelling the Implied Volatility of Options on Long Gilt Futures
Author(s) -
Brooks Chris,
Oozeer M. Currim
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of business finance and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.282
H-Index - 77
eISSN - 1468-5957
pISSN - 0306-686X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-5957.00426
Subject(s) - futures contract , treasury , economics , implied volatility , predictive power , volatility (finance) , bond , econometrics , financial economics , maturity (psychological) , strike price , volatility smile , finance , psychology , developmental psychology , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology , history
This paper investigates the properties of implied volatility series calculated from options on Treasury bond futures, traded on LIFFE. We demonstrate that the use of near‐maturity at the money options to calculate implied volatilities causes less mis‐pricing and is therefore superior to, a weighted average measure encompassing all relevant options. We demonstrate that, whilst a set of macroeconomic variables has some predictive power for implied volatilities, we are not able to earn excess returns by trading on the basis of these predictions once we allow for typical investor transactions costs.