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Domestic Crony Capitalism and International Fickle Capital: Is There a Connection?[Note 1. This research project is supported in part by a ...]
Author(s) -
Wei ShangJin
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
international finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.458
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1468-2362
pISSN - 1367-0271
DOI - 10.1111/1468-2362.00064
Subject(s) - economics , capitalism , currency , capital (architecture) , foreign direct investment , monetary economics , macroeconomics , political science , law , archaeology , politics , history
Domestic crony capitalism and fickle international capital flows are often suggested as two rival explanations for currency crises. This article examines a possible linkage between the two that has not been explored much in the literature: domestic crony capitalism may make a country more dependent on the more fickle type of international capital flows (e.g. international bank loans) rather than the less volatile type (e.g. foreign direct investment). It presents statistical evidence that the degree of domestic crony capitalism is indeed associated with a higher external loan‐to‐FDI ratio. Such a composition of capital flows has been identified as being associated with a higher incidence of a currency crisis. Therefore, even though crony capitalism does not forecast the exact timing of a crisis, it can nevertheless increase its likelihood.