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What history says about the odds of a consumer boom
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12568
Subject(s) - odds , boom , pace , baseline (sea) , consumption (sociology) , economics , scale (ratio) , demographic economics , logistic regression , environmental science , geography , statistics , mathematics , political science , social science , geodesy , environmental engineering , sociology , law , cartography
▪ Our analysis of sharp shifts in savings rates over the past half‐century supports the brisk pace of consumer recovery that we assume in our baseline growth forecast.▪ But given the scale of the recent build‐up of household savings, the odds of a faster rebound in consumption are relatively high. Our study suggests that larger rises in savings means faster subsequent unwinding.▪ Overall, around 1‐in‐4 previous episodes have seen a faster unwind of savings than in our baseline. In particular, periods of robust growth have been associated with especially rapid falls in savings rates.