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Japan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12536
Subject(s) - declaration , covid-19 , development economics , downside risk , economics , business , political science , medicine , finance , virology , outbreak , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , law , portfolio
After a difficult 2020, the economy should return to growth in 2021. While the arrival of a coronavirus vaccine bodes well for the services sector, the near term now appears increasingly challenging after a sharp rise in Covid‐19 cases prompted another state of emergency (SOE) declaration for Tokyo and other major prefectures, initially for a one‐month period from 8 January. We forecast GDP to rise 2.7% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022 (from 2.5% and 3.1% previously). The possibility of an extension of the SOE poses a downside risk for our 2021 forecast whereas a faster decline in infections and an effective rollout of the vaccine pose an upside risk.