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United States

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

economic outlook

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1

H-Index - 8

eISSN - 1468-0319

pISSN - 0140-489X

DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12535

Subject(s) - limiting , boom , economics , stimulus (psychology) , covid-19 , baseline (sea) , government (linguistics) , demographic economics , development economics , monetary economics , political science , medicine , psychology , environmental science , mechanical engineering , linguistics , philosophy , disease , pathology , environmental engineering , law , infectious disease (medical specialty) , engineering , psychotherapist

At the outset of 2021, the outlook is one of contrasts. The US economy carries little momentum into the new year. A catastrophic third Covid wave is limiting mobility, curbing employment and constraining demand. Yet, while worsening health conditions will weigh on growth in the near term, a mix of fresh government transfers and gradual vaccinations should lead to firming activity and a summer mini‐boom. Real GDP is likely to grow around 3.9% y/y in Q4 2021, versus 2.9% y/y in the October baseline, on the back of increased fiscal stimulus.

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