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Japan
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12468
Subject(s) - economics , consumption (sociology) , real gross domestic product , private consumption , tourism , monetary economics , international economics , fiscal policy , political science , social science , sociology , law
Growth continues to struggle against an uncertain external outlook and weak domestic demand. While GDP in most of 2019 was supported by a pick‐up in consumption spending ahead of last October's consumption tax hike, weak October and November data highlighted the possibility of a larger than expected fall in growth in Q4 2019. We expect GDP growth to slow to 0.3% in 2020 (after an estimated 1.0% in 2019), held back by a higher consumption tax, weak wage growth, and sluggish trade. That said, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics should provide modest support to spending and tourism. In 2021, we expect GDP to grow 0.8%.