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Will the Bank of England turn dovish?
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12432
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , austerity , keynesian economics , slowdown , brexit , monetary economics , monetary policy , interest rate , international economics , political science , european union , physics , politics , theoretical physics , law , economic growth
▀ Short of a sharp slowdown in the economy and/or inflation expectations, or a no‐deal Brexit, we think that the Bank of England is unlikely to follow recent moves by the Fed and ECB in signalling cuts to interest rates. ▀ Admittedly, the BoE's guidance on rate rises has gone awry before. And the UK has some commonalities with the US and eurozone, including declining core inflation and continued job creation without inflationary consequences. ▀ But growth projections paint the UK in a relatively favourable light, while stable inflation expectations and a relaxation of fiscal austerity offer two more reasons for the BoE to plough its own, more hawkish, furrow.