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Japan
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12422
Subject(s) - economics , slowdown , investment (military) , momentum (technical analysis) , consumption (sociology) , private consumption , production (economics) , monetary economics , china , industrial production , real gross domestic product , international economics , macroeconomics , fiscal policy , finance , economic growth , geography , social science , sociology , politics , political science , law , archaeology
Growth is set to struggle this year against a background of weak exports and a cyclical deceleration in capex spending. Weak demand from Asia (particularly China) and a slowdown in IT continue to cloud the external outlook. Sluggish industrial production and a loss of momentum in business investment will weigh on growth in 2019. We now expect real GDP to register a slight decline in Q1. For 2019, we forecast GDP to grow only 0.5% (down from 1.0% previously) before slowing to 0.4% in 2020 due to the consumption tax hike in Q4.