Forecast Overview

The preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP growth is likely to be relatively soft, as a result of two temporary factors. First, a week of snowy weather at the end of February/start of March appears to have caused significant disruption to activity. And second, the collapse of Carillion – the UK's second largest construction firm – caused construction output to plunge in January. As a result, quarterly GDP growth looks likely to come in at around 0.3%, though it could conceivably be weaker still.