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Forecast Overview
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
economic outlook
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.1
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1468-0319
pISSN - 0140-489X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0319.12131
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , oil price , inflation rate , interest rate , econometrics , real gross domestic product , monetary economics , macroeconomics , physics , theoretical physics
We have revised up our forecasts for GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 to 3% and 2.8% respectively, from 2.7% and 2.5% three months ago. This follows the plunge in the oil price, which will push inflation sharply lower and boost household spending power. It is unlikely that the MPC will consider raising interest rates while inflation is very low, so we have also pushed back our forecast for the first rate hike from Q3 2015 to Q1 2016…