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Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review *
Author(s) -
Rungcharoenkitkul Phurichai
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
pacific economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.34
H-Index - 33
eISSN - 1468-0106
pISSN - 1361-374X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0106.12372
Subject(s) - pandemic , interim , covid-19 , term (time) , economics , development economics , dispersion (optics) , macroeconomics , econometrics , political science , outbreak , medicine , virology , physics , disease , optics , pathology , quantum mechanics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , law
This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre‐pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High‐frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.