Premium
How fast can China grow? The Middle Kingdom's prospects to 2030
Author(s) -
Bailliu Jeannine,
Kruger Mark,
Toktamyssov Argyn,
Welbourn Wheaton
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
pacific economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.34
H-Index - 33
eISSN - 1468-0106
pISSN - 1361-374X
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0106.12240
Subject(s) - economics , total factor productivity , china , human capital , stock (firearms) , wage , investment (military) , growth accounting , productivity , commodity , production function , macroeconomics , production (economics) , monetary economics , econometrics , labour economics , market economy , mechanical engineering , politics , political science , law , engineering
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast China can grow over the medium term is an important one. Using a Cobb–Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom‐up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. In addition, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital (based on Chinese wage survey data) that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese GDP growth will slow from around 7% currently to approximately 5% by 2030, consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate. Moreover, our findings underscore the growing importance of TFP growth as a driver of Chinese growth.