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Forecast Bias and MSFE Encompassing
Author(s) -
Marcellino Massimiliano
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/1468-0084.00186
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , econometrics , monetary policy , macroeconomics , physics , theoretical physics
We show that the standard condition for MSFE encompassing is no longer valid when the forecasts to be compared are biased. We propose a simple modification of such a condition and of tests for its validity. The theoretical results are illustrated by an empirical example on inflation and deficit forecasts, key variables for the formulation of monetary and fiscal policy.