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Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–98
Author(s) -
Lee Kevin,
Shields Kalvinder
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
the manchester school
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.361
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1467-9957
pISSN - 1463-6786
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9957.68.s1.5
Subject(s) - manufacturing sector , measure (data warehouse) , econometrics , economics , autoregressive model , aggregate (composite) , vector autoregression , decomposition , manufacturing , macroeconomics , computer science , business , data mining , ecology , materials science , marketing , biology , composite material
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure trend output in the manufacturing sector. This measure is compared with alternative trend measures obtained using aggregate manufacturing sector data only.