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International Evidence on the Asymmetry of Business Cycle Turning Points
Author(s) -
Kontolemis Ze G.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
the manchester school
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.361
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1467-9957
pISSN - 1463-6786
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9957.00250
Subject(s) - asymmetry , turning point , business cycle , markov chain , economics , nonparametric statistics , econometrics , point (geometry) , symmetry (geometry) , macroeconomics , mathematics , statistics , physics , geometry , quantum mechanics , acoustics , period (music)
Turning point symmetry implies that a time series displays cycles that exhibit similar behavior around peaks and troughs. In this paper two tests for business cycle turning point symmetry are applied to industrial production data from a number of OECD countries. A Markov chain test provides very weak evidence for turning point asymmetry for these countries. Several problems with this approach are identified, and nonparametric methods are proposed as alternatives to the Markov chain test and reveal more clear‐cut evidence for turning point asymmetry.