Premium
Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students
Author(s) -
Smith Jeremy P.,
Naylor Robin A.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/1467-985x.00209
Subject(s) - probit model , residence , cohort , preparedness , unemployment , psychology , mathematics education , medical education , drop out , demography , demographic economics , statistics , medicine , economics , sociology , mathematics , economic growth , management
From individual level data for an entire cohort of undergraduate students in the ‘old’ universities in the UK, we use a binomial probit model to estimate the probability that an individual will ‘drop out’ of university before the completion of their degree course. We examine the cohort of students enrolling full time for a 3‐ or 4‐year degree in the academic year 1989–1990. We find evidence to support both the hypothesis that the completion of courses by students is influenced by the extent of prior academic preparedness and the hypothesis that social integration at university is important. We also find an influence of unemployment in the county of prior residence, especially for poorer male students. Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the public policy of constructing university performance indicators in this area.