Premium
Forecasting on British election night 1997
Author(s) -
Brown P. J.,
Firth D.,
Payne C. D.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.1111/1467-985x.00131
Subject(s) - broadcasting (networking) , general election , voting , outcome (game theory) , political science , group voting ticket , corporation , differential (mechanical device) , advertising , economics , computer science , law , business , computer security , engineering , mathematical economics , politics , aerospace engineering
An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBC's exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.