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Reproduction Rates in Multiregion Modeling Systems for HIV/AIDS
Author(s) -
Thomas Richard
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
journal of regional science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.171
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1467-9787
pISSN - 0022-4146
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9787.00138
Subject(s) - reproduction , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , basic reproduction number , population , demography , set (abstract data type) , epidemiology , econometrics , computer science , biology , medicine , sociology , mathematics , immunology , ecology , pathology , programming language
The persistence of HIV/AIDS has seen a revival of academic interest in the development of modeling systems to assist understanding the population dynamics of this infection. Moreover, it has become increasingly recognized that a key component of these systems for interpreting disease prevention is their reproduction rate, which provides an indication of whether an epidemic might start in a community described by a particular set of epidemiological characteristics. The properties of these rates have been explored in detail for models of a single risk behavior but not for multiregion formats that allow for the transfer of infection between geographical units. Therefore, in this paper I derive reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model together with their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. These statistics are interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. In the discussion I examine the potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention.