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Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate
Author(s) -
McKin Ronald,
Schnabl Gunther
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9701.00563
Subject(s) - devaluation , depreciation (economics) , liberian dollar , economics , east asia , exchange rate , china , us dollar , monetary economics , international economics , foreign direct investment , macroeconomics , finance , market economy , geography , capital formation , archaeology , financial capital , human capital
Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra‐Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.