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Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries
Author(s) -
Fukase Emiko,
Winters L. Alan
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.594
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1467-9701
pISSN - 0378-5920
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9701.00551
Subject(s) - openness to experience , economics , liberalization , international economics , productivity , order (exchange) , foreign direct investment , economic integration , investment (military) , absorptive capacity , international trade , trade diversion , trade barrier , industrial organization , international free trade agreement , macroeconomics , market economy , psychology , social psychology , finance , politics , political science , law
We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock‐in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.