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Has the Market's Estimate of Crop Price Variability Increased since the 1996 Farm Bill?
Author(s) -
Zulauf Carl R.,
Blue E. Neal
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.1111/1467-9353.00050
Subject(s) - agricultural economics , economics , crop , crop insurance , agricultural science , business , agriculture , agronomy , geography , environmental science , biology , archaeology
Following enactment of the 1996 Farm Bill, corn and soybean implied volatilities covering the preharvest and storage seasons increased 16–23% between 1987–1995 and 1997–2001. The increase was statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. Standard deviation of corn and soybean prices derived from the implied volatilities increased 7–25%, but only the increase for preharvest corn was statistically significant. Further muddling the picture is the decline in variability of annual U.S. average corn and soybean cash price. These mixed findings point to continuing disagreement about government's role in managing farm risk in the post‐1996 Farm Bill world.