Premium
China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector
Author(s) -
Chen Xiaoguang,
Chen Shuai
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural and resource economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 1364-985X
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8489.12267
Subject(s) - china , yield (engineering) , global warming , environmental science , climate change , agricultural economics , agronomy , economics , geography , biology , ecology , materials science , archaeology , metallurgy
We analysed a county‐level data set of single‐season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China's rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models Had GEM 2‐ ES and Nor ESM 1‐M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.