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Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia
Author(s) -
Kompas Tom,
Ha Pham Van,
Nguyen Hoa Thi Minh,
East Iain,
Roche Sharon,
Garner Graeme
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural and resource economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 1364-985X
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8489.12224
Subject(s) - foot and mouth disease , outbreak , disease , foot (prosody) , disease surveillance , medicine , environmental health , geography , virology , linguistics , philosophy , pathology
Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease ( FMD ) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing ( BMT ) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.