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World Energy Outlook 2014 projections to 2040: natural gas and coal trade, and the role of China
Author(s) -
Cronshaw Ian
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
australian journal of agricultural and resource economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.683
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-8489
pISSN - 1364-985X
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8489.12120
Subject(s) - fossil fuel , renewable energy , primary energy , china , greenhouse gas , natural resource economics , natural gas , energy mix , quarter (canadian coin) , coal , energy policy , energy development , economics , energy subsidies , international trade , business , agricultural economics , economy , electricity generation , geography , power (physics) , engineering , waste management , ecology , physics , electrical engineering , archaeology , quantum mechanics , biology
The paper presents data and results from the World Energy Outlook ( WEO ) 2014, published by the International Energy Agency ( IEA ). Over the period to 2040, total energy use is projected to grow by almost 40 per cent, while the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix falls. Nonetheless, these fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of energy, with oil, coal and gas each accounting for around one quarter of global energy needs by 2040. Increasingly, modern renewables are projected to replace fossil fuels, especially in the power sector. Around 93 per cent of the projected increased primary energy demand comes from non‐ OECD countries, with two‐thirds coming from developing Asia, led by China. By 2025, China could account for almost a quarter of global energy use, doubling its share since the turn of the century. After 2025, India and other Asian countries surpass China as the main centres of energy demand growth. The IEA 's WEO 2014 concludes that even taking into account ambitious policy measures announced as of mid to late 2014, energy growth projections place the world on a path consistent with a long‐term temperature increase of 3.6 degrees. Urgent action is required if the world's energy systems are to be steered towards lower greenhouse gas emissions.