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A Primer on the ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ and Ways to Fix It
Author(s) -
Reed W. Robert
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
australian economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.308
H-Index - 29
eISSN - 1467-8462
pISSN - 0004-9018
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8462.12262
Subject(s) - replication (statistics) , value (mathematics) , computer science , empirical research , primer (cosmetics) , reproducibility , econometrics , management science , positive economics , actuarial science , statistics , economics , mathematics , machine learning , chemistry , organic chemistry
Abstract This article uses the framework of Ioannidis ([Ioannidis, J. P, 2005]) to organise a discussion of issues related to the ‘reproducibility crisis’. It then goes on to use that framework to evaluate various proposals to fix the problem. Of particular interest is the ‘post‐study probability’, the probability that a reported research finding represents a true relationship. This probability is inherently unknowable. However, a number of insightful results emerge if we are willing to make some conjectures about reasonable parameter values. Among other things, this analysis demonstrates the important role that replication can play in improving the signal value of empirical research.