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Seasonality and Return Periods of Landfalling Atlantic Basin Hurricanes
Author(s) -
Parisi Francis,
Lund Robert
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 1369-1473
DOI - 10.1111/1467-842x.00127
Subject(s) - landfall , atlantic hurricane , climatology , environmental science , structural basin , return period , homogeneous , meteorology , poisson regression , poisson distribution , seasonality , poisson process , annual cycle , wind speed , statistics , geography , mathematics , tropical cyclone , geology , demography , paleontology , population , archaeology , combinatorics , sociology , flood myth
This paper studies the annual arrival cycle and return period properties of landfalling Atlantic Basin hurricanes. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a periodic intensity function is used to model the annual cycle of hurricane arrival times. Wind speed and central pressure return periods and non‐encounter probabilities are estimated by combining the Poisson arrival model with extreme value peaks‐over‐threshold methods. The data used in this study contain all Atlantic Basin hurricanes that have made landfall in the contiguous United States during the years 1935–98 inclusive.