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Applications: Modelling rugby league data viabivariate negative binomial regression
Author(s) -
Lee Alan
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.434
H-Index - 41
eISSN - 1467-842X
pISSN - 1369-1473
DOI - 10.1111/1467-842x.00070
Subject(s) - negative binomial distribution , bivariate analysis , league , offensive , mathematics , negative multinomial distribution , statistics , econometrics , competition (biology) , regression analysis , binomial regression , football , count data , beta binomial distribution , operations research , geography , poisson distribution , ecology , physics , astronomy , biology , archaeology
This paper uses a new bivariate negative binomial distribution to model scores in the 1996 Australian Rugby League competition. First, scores are modelled using the home ground advantage but ignoring the actual teams playing. Then a bivariate negative binomial regression model is introduced that takes into account the offensive and defensive capacities of each team. Finally, the 1996 season is simulated using the latter model to determine whether or not Manly did indeed deserve to win the competition.