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Impact of East Asia’s Growth Interruption and Policy Responses: The Case of Indonesia
Author(s) -
Anderson Kym,
Strutt Anna
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
asian economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.345
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1467-8381
pISSN - 1351-3958
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8381.00081
Subject(s) - economics , east asia , negotiation , agrarian society , international economics , international trade , development economics , china , geography , political science , agriculture , archaeology , law
Assessments to date of the consequences of implementing the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations have assumed medium‐term rates of economic growth in East Asia that now seem unsustainable. This paper compares an earlier assessment with a new set of estimates involving an interruption to East Asian economic growth in the late 1990s, using the global, economy‐wide GTAP model. Attention focuses on results for Indonesia, the worst‐affected country in the region. An important consequence of the crisis is that Indonesia is likely to become more agrarian for a time than it otherwise would have been. The estimated benefits to Indonesia from embracing further unilateral reform, as a way of catching up, are contrasted with the alternative strategy of reneging on Uruguay Round commitments to liberalize trade.