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Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?
Author(s) -
Hosny Amr
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
african development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.654
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1467-8268
pISSN - 1017-6772
DOI - 10.1111/1467-8268.12453
Subject(s) - treasury , exchange rate , monetary economics , currency , local currency , interest rate , depreciation (economics) , portfolio , debt , economics , carry (investment) , external debt , business , finance , archaeology , capital formation , financial capital , history , economic growth , human capital
This paper studies the drivers of nonresident holdings of local currency debt in Nigeria. Using data over 2007M1–2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio investors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local‐currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria‐specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short‐term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer‐term direct investments.