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Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease ( NAFLD ) fibrosis score predicts 6.6‐year overall mortality of C hinese patients with NAFLD
Author(s) -
Xun Yunhao,
Guo Jianchun,
Lou Guoqiang,
Jiang Yanming,
Zhuang Zhenjie,
Zhu Mengfei,
Luo Yan,
Ma Xiaojie,
Liu Jing,
Bian Dongxue,
Shi Junping
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
clinical and experimental pharmacology and physiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.752
H-Index - 103
eISSN - 1440-1681
pISSN - 0305-1870
DOI - 10.1111/1440-1681.12260
Subject(s) - medicine , hazard ratio , gastroenterology , fatty liver , receiver operating characteristic , confidence interval , body mass index , proportional hazards model , area under the curve , population , fibrosis , disease , environmental health
Summary The non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease ( NAFLD ) fibrosis score ( NFS ) has emerged as a useful predictor of long‐term outcome in NAFLD patients. We evaluated the predictive performance of the NFS for overall mortality in a Chinese population with NAFLD . All NAFLD patients diagnosed ultrasonographically at Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou between 1996 and 2011 were retrospectively recruited to the study. Outcome was determined by interview and causes of death were confirmed by medical records. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ( AUC ROC ) was used to determine the predictive accuracy of the NFS , BARD (body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase ( AST )/alanine aminotransferase ( ALT ) ratio, diabetes) score, FIB ‐4 index and the AST /platelet ratio index ( APRI ) for mortality. Data from a total of 180 eligible patients (median age 39 years; 96 men) were analysed, with 12 deaths over a median follow‐up period of 6.6 years (range 0.5–14.8 years). Using Cox model analysis, the NFS as a continuous variable was identified as the only predictor for all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.743, 95% confidence interval ( CI ) 1.670–4.504). The NFS yielded the highest AUC ROC of 0.828 (95% CI 0.728–0.928, P < 0.05), followed by the FIB ‐4 index, APRI and BARD score ( AUC ROC 0.806 ( P < 0.05), 0.732 ( P < 0.05) and 0.632, respectively). The data indicated that the NFS is a useful predictor of 6.6‐year all‐cause mortality for Chinese patients with NAFLD .