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Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology
Author(s) -
MilnerGulland E. J.,
Shea Katriona
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of applied ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.503
H-Index - 181
eISSN - 1365-2664
pISSN - 0021-8901
DOI - 10.1111/1365-2664.12887
Subject(s) - management science , computer science , uncertainty , ecology , uncertainty analysis , face (sociological concept) , uncertainty quantification , range (aeronautics) , plan (archaeology) , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental resource management , environmental science , machine learning , economics , sociology , engineering , business , mathematics , geography , biology , simulation , social science , statistics , archaeology , aerospace engineering
SummaryApplied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision‐making. Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives. We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists’ ability to plan and execute research to support management. Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.